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Archive for September 2012

The Stock Market and the U.S. Presidential Election

Robert R. Prechter, Jr., best known for his work with the Elliott Wave Principle as a tool for forecasting stock market and economic trends, also wrote a book called The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior and the New Science of Socionomics, published in 1999.

This book is must reading for anyone hoping to understand the ways that social mood impacts the markets, and in defining the science of socionomics Prechter laid some important groundwork that has brought more refinement and accuracy to the work of predicting future trends.

The big forecasting question on everybody’s mind right now is, of course, the outcome of the U.S. presidential election in November, and right on time Bob Prechter came out last Thursday with an updated version of a research report that he authored earlier this year with Deepak Goel, Wayne D. Parker, and Matthew Lampert, published by the Socionomics Institute.

Titled “Social Mood, Stock Market Performance and U.S. Presidential Elections”, this report makes for fascinating reading. Here’s the abstract:

“We analyze all U.S. presidential election bids. We find a positive, significant relationship between the incumbent’s vote margin and the prior net percentage change in the stock market. This relationship does not extend to the incumbent’s party when the incumbent does not run for re-election. We find no significant relationships between the incumbent’s vote margin and inflation or unemployment. GDP is a significant predictor of the incumbent’s popular vote margin in simple regression but is rendered insignificant when combined with the stock market in multiple regression. Hypotheses of economic voting fail to account for the findings. The results are consistent with socionomic voting theory, which includes the hypotheses that (1) social mood as reflected by the stock market is a more powerful regulator of re-election outcomes than economic variables such as GDP, inflation and unemployment and (2) voters unconsciously credit or blame the leader for their mood.”

In other words, the better the stock market does during the years of a U.S. president’s first term of office, the more likely he is to be reelected if he runs for a second term. For example, here’s a chart of the Dow Industrials, showing the market trend for the last six years, with the time that Barack Obama took office in January 2009 noted on the chart:

Dow Industrials 2006-2012

This chart shows weekly price bars for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Note the market bottom just after President Obama took office in late January, 2008, with an overall uptrend after that.

We’ll have to wait until November to see just how accurate this forecasting tool proves to be. In the meantime, however, you can download a complete copy of the report on “Social Mood, Stock Market Performance and U.S. Presidential Elections” by clicking here.

 

Another Great Week for Our Gold-Plus Elite Members

Kudos to our Gold-Plus Elite members at FinancialCyclesWeekly.com!

Even though the stock market as a whole was down last week, they cashed in on some short-term trades and walked away with some very attractive profits.

For the trading week ending on September 28, the Dow Industrials were down by 1.05% and the S&P 500 fell 1.33%. The NASDAQ Composite dropped 2.00% and the Russell 2000 lost 2.11%.

But our Gold-Plus Elite members closed 6 trades, with one trade losing $85.00 and the remaining 5 trades bringing in a total profit of $1,790.00.

Those winning Model Portfolio trades had an average ROI of 3.40%, with the market exposure in each trade lasting less than 9 trading days on average — in other words, our Gold-Plus Elite members were in and out of their market positions in less than two calendar weeks, but pocketed profits that would have taken them about seven years to earn if they had put their money in savings accounts at today’s interest rates!

Check out the record of the week’s trades for yourself to get the details.

The best thing, of course, is that our Gold-Plus Elite members don’t have to be expert traders to get these results — and they don’t have to know anything about astrology, either. They can enjoy the full benefit of the astro-trading advantage without specialized knowledge because our Gold-Plus Elite membership is a complete, done-for-you program that provides the ultimate in hand-holding guidance so you can trade with a minimum amount of time, effort, and anxiety.

All trading involves financial risk, of course, and our Gold-Plus Elite members do have some losing trades as well as winners. But winning weeks like this past one pay for the membership many times over!

Market Astrology Makes The News

It was great to see my friend Arch Crawford mentioned in one of the lead stories on the Marketplace Economy website for the American Public Media “Marketplace” syndicated radio show.

“Crawford warns his 2,000 subscribers particularly against the dangers of Mercury in retrograde,” the article says, “a time when the planet appears to be going in reverse across the sky. The phenomenon, which happens three times or more a year, indicates a month when communications will be screwed up. He warns his subscribers never to start anything new during that time. He points to the fact that Knight Capital launched a new software program in August, when Mercury was in retrograde, and the brokerage firm nearly went out of business. He also notes that most major market glitches have happened while Mercury was in retrograde.”

You can read the full story and hear the radio clip that was broadcast on yesterday’s program at:

http://www.marketplace.org/topics/economy/astrology-guides-some-financial-traders

 

The Day Has Finally Arrived!

Wow!

I have to admit that I’ve at times actually doubted that this day would ever arrive.

After many, many months of really hard work and a lot of very long nights, my new book is finally seeing the light of day.

It’s called Mercury, Money and the Markets.

It’s 288 pages long and tips the scales at 1 pound, 6 ounces – a really big book, and I’m very proud of it!

It’s packed with tips for astro-traders who are looking for short-term trading opportunities based on rigorous back-testing and research.

The listing for the book should appear on Amazon.com within the next day or so, and in the meantime it’s available right now from the publisher’s website at http://bit.ly/MercuryBook.

And, if you go to the publisher’s site right now, you can get your personal copy at a big pre-publication discount price. That price is good through the end of the month, even though the book is already available now.

To say that this has been a labor of love would be a big understatement; but more than that, I think it’s really an important contribution as a tool and a reference resource for astro-traders.

Take a look – I truly hope you’ll be as excited about this new book as I am!

The Empty Chair

Ever since Clint Eastwood appeared interviewing an empty chair at the Republican National Convention a couple of days ago, I’ve been trying to figure the whole scene out, not only in terms of his strange communications style, but also in terms of the potential investment opportunities that might be implied by the episode.

What dawned on me, though, was that the best way to get the real inside story here was to take a look at Clint Eastwood’s horoscope. When I did so, I got a lot more than I had bargained for, especially in the light of the current waxing Uranus/Pluto square.

Here’s an 8-minute video that shares some of my observations: