Archive for August 2016

Stock Market Crash Forecast From A Gold Bug

A big stock market crash is on the way.

In fact, according to a pro-gold research organization, it’s due right now!

It’s Time For The Stock Market Crash – All Three Major US Indices Have Broken Record Highs

That’s the compelling headline for a recent blog post at Palisade Research.

The post argues that the simultaneous record highs set by the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500 Index, and the NASDAQ Composite Index is a strong indicator that a major top is in.

And if a top is in, of course, a big stock market crash is on the way!

stock market crash because of record highs

Palisade Research illustrated the blog post with this dramatic chart. It not only shows the price lines for the Dow, the S&P, and the NASDAQ. It also shows the HUI Index, which is the NYSE Arca Gold BUGS Index. (Palisade Research has an unabashed bullish bias on precious metals.)

According to Palisade Research, “The last time the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), and NASDAQ closed simultaneously at record highs, each index tumbled for the next 2.5 years: -40.33%, 25.04%, and -75.04%, respectively.”

If History Really Repeats Itself, Just How Bad Will The Stock Market Crash Be?

The classic warning in the markets, of course, is that “past performance is no guarantee of future results.”

That’s true when we want to make optimistic assumptions about our trading prospects. It’s true when we seek to justify big positions on the basis of our back-testing and the big successes we may have experienced in the past.

But it’s also true of doom and gloom predictions, too!

Even so, Palisade Research doesn’t hesitate to extrapolate the likelihood of a major plunge based on what happened after the most recent stock market crash and its predecessor 14 years ago:

“In fact,” the blog post notes, “if the market were to correct in a similar way as we saw in 2002 and 2009, we can expect the S&P 500, DJIA, and NASDAQ to drop -64.65%, -60.72%, -75.80%, respectively.”

So will get a giant stock market crash in the weeks ahead?

Time will tell. It’s been almost 2 years since we mentioned a possible stock market crash.

But our analysis definitely shows the potential for consolidation, if not an outright correction.

And with the current eclipse cycle getting underway, this is definitely a time for stock market bulls to be extremely cautious!

August 18 Lunar Eclipse Concerns

The August 18 Lunar Eclipse is just around the corner. It definitely raises some big concerns for stock market watchers and astro-traders.

Our astronomer friends tell us that the August 18 Lunar Eclipse is an appulse eclipse. That’s one which occurs when the Moon is at or near its closest proximity to Earth.

This means that in terms of visibility the August 18 Lunar Eclipse will be a penumbral eclipse. A partial shadow of the Earth will be visible over the face of the Full Moon, instead of a total eclipse.

Will You See The August 18 Lunar Eclipse?

If you’re in South America (except for the easternmost part) or in the eastern half of North America, you may be able to see the eclipse effects near moonset, shortly before sunrise on Thursday.

The full effect of the August 18 Lunar Eclipse will be visible in the western half of North America, the far-eastern portion of Russia. It can also be seen from the Bering Sea and in the Aleutian Islands.

The moonrise eclipse can be sighted in Australia, the Marshall Islands, Japan, North and South Korea, and the eastern part of Indonesia.

The Message For The Markets

But as astro-traders it’s the potential market impact of the August 18 Lunar Eclipse that concerns us the most.

August 18 Lunar Eclipse and S&P

If we compare the eclipse horoscope to the First-Trade chart for the S&P 500 cash contract from March 1, 1957, it’s easy to see the planetary connections.

All of them could have a big impact on the market. But they’re not uniformly negative influences.

For example, we can see transiting Jupiter conjoining First-Trade Jupiter. The eclipse is a Jupiter Return for the S&P.

We can also spot transiting Mercury conjoining First-Trade Apollon, so the talk in the markets is likely to have a bullish slant.

The conjunction of transiting Neptune with the S&P First-Trade Sun could add to the speculative energy in large-cap stocks.

In short, it’s not too surprising to see the S&P 500 hitting fresh all-time record highs as we approach the August 18 Lunar Eclipse.

Is This A Trading Top?

But the eclipse transit to the S&P First-Trade horoscope also brings its share of bearish concerns.

The eclipsed Moon conjoins First-Trade Mercury. So positive messages may suddenly become muted when expectations for the stock market are being discussed.

The S&P Sun also receives an ominous square from transiting Saturn.

This could constrict the money flow in the markets.

And on top of that, transiting Uranus conjoins the S&P First-Trade Admetos. Admetos functions as a “super Saturn” in the transneptunian realm. That could mean some very unpleasant surprises for the stock market following the August 18 Lunar Eclipse.

Just how unpleasant?

August 18 Lunar Eclipse 90-degree dial

A quick look at the 90-degree dial for the lunar eclipse horoscope offers some suggestions.

The lunar eclipse triggers the Saturn/Poseidon midpoint. So there may be some fresh disciplines to acquire, some sobering new concepts to assimilate, and some stern lessons to learn.

The Hades/Pluto midpoint also comes into sharp focus. It presents a picture of declining markets, grim circumstances, and the start of negative trends in which things get worse for a sustained period of time.

Kronos is also activated. Kronos is about the highest highs. Is this a signal of a market top?

A Precursor To The Solar Eclipse

FCW 1633We highlighted the August 18 Lunar Eclipse in the most recent issue of the FinancialCyclesWeekly.com newsletter. It provides more details and adds some additional perspectives on the significance of this lunar eclipse in terms of market impact. You can get the full issue of the newsletter at: http://www.financialcyclesweekly.com/members/Newsletter-for-August-14-20-02016.cfm

More importantly, though, this lunar eclipse is setting the stage for the next big solar eclipse. It’s coming up on September 1. Right now our new publication on this big event is getting prepared for release:

Beyond Shadows CoverIt’s called Beyond the Shadows: Divergence and Opportunity. It provides detailed analysis of the upcoming market trends associated with this eclipse cycle. You can pre-order your copy now at a special pre-publication discount rate.

You’ll find details on this special limited-time offer at: https://harmonicresearchassociates.leadpages.co/er1609pp/ 

Oh, and don’t forget that we also have our first-ever Heart of the Lion Astro-Trading Symposium coming up on September 26 and 27. We’ll be meeting in Bradenton, Florida.

Our sessions for that special event will include an in-depth discussion of using eclipse cycles in market forecasting. Our presenter, Jim Cummins, will also cast an eye on the geopolitical implications of this entire eclipse series.

We still have a few seats left at the early-registration discount price. If you move fast you can get one. You can find more details on the Heart of the Lion Astro-Trading Symposium at: http://bit.ly/HOTLATSeb.

Hope you can join us then!

 

 

 

Michael Phelps – What Are Gold Medals Worth?

Michael Phelps has been winning gold medals. But how much are they really worth?

After all, the Olympic swimmer has got a bunch of them!

He has broken record after record, setting an incredibly high standard that others can only aspire to meet.

From the astrological perspective he’s a sun-sign Cancer, which is a water sign (of course!). His goal-oriented Sagittarius Moon keeps him focused on one achievement after another.

What he does in the pool transcends mere swimming. It’s not even just about racing or competition.

He has modeled self-discipline at a truly amazing level, taking athletic training to extremes (both phyisically and mentally) that can only be described as insanely obsessive.

His name has become virtually synonymous with the Olympic games themselves.

Michael Phelps is scheduled to swim one last time tonight in Rio as an Olympian when he joins Team USA for a relay event.

In all likelihood, it will give him one more shot at winning yet another gold medal.

And after that, he’s retiring.

At least that’s what he says he’s going to do – he said the same thing after the 2012 Olympics in London.

Michael Phelps

Michael Phelps is extremely good at collecting gold medals

But, of course, he’s back this year, turning in more dazzling performances in the pool. . . and grabbing more gold along the way.

And who really knows what the 2020 Olympics will bring? A lot can happen between now and then.

But What About The Medals Phelps Has?

If they were to go on the auction block, what would they bring?

Would just the fact that Michael Phelps won them add to their value?

And what about the intrinsic metallic value of the medals themselves?

The gold medals that Michael Phelps has won are, after all, only gold plated. (You were thinking they were maybe solid gold?)

There’s some really interesting math involved when you try to figure it all out.

An article in today’s Washington Post offers some useful perspectives:

http://wapo.st/2aSlUAC

Saying Goodbye To My Brother

I’ve been saying goodbye to a loved one, and I’m feeling really tired.

Part of my fatigue is no doubt due to an intense travel schedule during the past week – I flew to Pennsylvania to help conduct a memorial service for my youngest brother Otto. That meant I had to deal with the usual stresses of airline security, crowded airports, and inconvenient timing.

I had a late connection coming back home to Florida. My Uber driver dropped me off at 2:00 a.m. on Tuesday morning.

I’m still trying to get back onto a regular sleep schedule. That has added to my weariness as well.

But on top of that, I’ve been getting a first-hand understanding of just how physically exhausting grief can be. It’s really taken me by surprise.

A Sudden Departure

The biggest surprise of all, though, was the fact that Otto died in the first place. He passed away suddenly on July 26, while he was vacationing in the North Carolina mountains. With him were his three adult children, his daughter-in-law, and his granddaughter, who will be 2 years old in October.

The day before he died, the whole crew took a day trip to visit with our parents, who are both in their early 90’s. Our other two siblings joined them there. It was a great family gathering.

It was also a wonderful opportunity for saying goodbye, although nobody knew that’s what they were doing at the time.

I missed that occasion, however. So I was glad that I had a chance to go deliver the eulogy at Otto’s memorial service last Sunday in Pennsylvania. He and I had been really close, even though I was 12 older than him and even though we spent most of our years widely separated by geography.

Otto Bost - Saying Goodbye

J. Otto Bost –  August 27, 1960 – July 26, 2016

It was truly rewarding for me to be so closely united with him, and to be a part of the final celebration of his life as we were saying goodbye to Otto.

It was also good to get better acquainted with my niece and nephews. With their Dad gone now, I’m sure we’ll find a need for stronger connections in future years.

An Excuse To Slow Down

And in a way I’m also grateful for the grief and the fatigue. They’ve slowed me down a bit. In the process I’ve found a much-needed opportunity for quiet reflection. I’ve been thinking about Otto, of course, but also about family and love and the remarkable comfort of the cycles in our lives.

As we were saying goodbye during the memorial service, Otto’s son Steven read aloud some verses from the great astrological book of Ecclesiastes. They keep running through my mind:

“To everything there is a season, and a time for every purpose under the heaven: A time to be born, and a time to die; a time to plant, and a time to pluck up that which is planted. . . .”