Dow Target A Near Miss

Okay. We’ve just finished the first quarter of the trading year, and our Dow target wasn’t hit precisely.

But we came pretty darn close!

What Dow Target?

What does all this mean? What target am I talking about, anyway?

It all started with a request I got in late November from Timer Digest newsletter.

They regularly track market timers, including the trading signals that we publish in FinancialCyclesWeekly.

And, as I noted in a blog post a few months ago, they wanted an overall forecast for 2017.

Their request was for a specific Dow target for the end of March, for the end of June, and for the end of the year on December 31st..

So here’s what I came up with.

I was looking for a bullish quarter for stocks.

That certainly has proven to be the case.

But I was trying to figure this out in late November, remember.

At that time (November 28) the Dow Jones Industrial Average stood at 19097.90.

So I did some back-testing.

I looked at cycles of the true lunar node.

I assessed upcoming astrological events.

I took a particular look at upcoming solar eclipse patterns.

Not Just Trump

While many of colleagues and fellow forecasters focused on the election of Donald Trump, I didn’t give it much attention.

Trump's New York Battle

Donald Trump’s billionaire status translated into Wall Street enthusiasm after the election.

At that time, of course, a Trump Rally was already underway.

The Dow had already climbed nearly 5 percent since the presidential election. And it was a pretty good bet it would continue into the new year.

At least until after the presidential inauguration on January 20.

But again, I wasn’t giving that factor much attention as I calculated my Dow target.

I was looking at the astrology instead – that’s mainly what astro-traders do!

So What Exactly Was The Dow Target?

As I’ve reported here before, my target for the end of March, 2017 was 20605.00.

Dow Target March 2017

Our Dow Target for the end of March 2017 was very close to the actual closing price on March 31.

And, as I noted shortly after the forecast made it into print in Timer Digest, I found myself “wondering if perhaps I didn’t stick my neck out a little too far with this forecast.”

As it turned out, though, my Dow target was a little too conservative.

My projection was for 20606.00. The Dow finished up at the end of March at 20663.22.

My Dow target was off by 0.28%.

We’ll see how things turn out for the rest of the year.

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