Are we facing a euro bottom?
Is this a good time to buy the currency?
While euro bottom questions are typically the concern of avid FOREX traders, this time the query came from a different source.
My step-daughter Jennifer was visiting us for a few days. We were relaxing with drinks on the patio overlooking the river.
Making Summer Plans
She was talking about her plans for the rest of the summer.
Jennifer and her husband will be spending most of July in France.
She loves vacationing there. And for this visit she’s already making a list of new things to check out.
Earlier that day she had popped in at a local coffee bar, and had struck up a conversation with the barista, who, it turned out, was a native Parisian.
By the time Jennifer had gotten her latte, she had also gotten a couple of suggestions about great restaurants to try in Paris.
She’s eager to check them out.
But, she asked me, what’s the outlook for the euro?
“The last time we went to France the exchange rate was really high,” she said. “I don’t remember the exact rate, but I do know it took a lot of dollars to get euros.”
“I got kind of confused with the math. So to keep things simple, I just doubled the money in my mind. If something cost 15 euro, I figured I was was really spending 30 dollars. That seemed to work out pretty well.”
That’s why she wanted to know about the current exchange rate.
When I told her that you could currently get one euro for about $1.12, she seemed quite pleased.
“That’s great!” she said. “Our money will go a lot farther this trip. But do you think it will stay low? I mean, should we be getting some euro now to plan ahead for our vacation?”
Looking At A Euro Bottom
I told her that I’d do a little research.
I started by running a cycle analysis based on the EUR/USD trading history. Here’s what I came up with:
When I showed Jennifer that chart, she was quick to react. The euro bottom seemed pretty obvious.
“It definitely looks like the time to be buying euro,” she said.
I cautioned her that cycle projections are just that – projections.
“This is certainly not a guarantee that we’re at an absolute bottom now,” I said. “But it does look like prices will be going up from here.”
An Astro Confirmation
Later that day, as I was putting together some material for an upcoming webinar on Transneptunian effects, I decided to take a look at the historic impacts of Mars/Kronos conjunctions on the price of the euro.
We have a Mars/Kronos conjunction coming up on June 2nd.
The back-testing chart was quite revealing:
While the astrological back-testing doesn’t guarantee that a euro bottom is in any more than the cycle analysis does, it interesting to see.
It definitely suggests that this may indeed be a good time to go euro shopping.