A market forecast for 2017?
About a month ago I got just such a request from Timer Digest.
They wanted to know my forecast for the coming year, in terms of what I was anticipating for action in the stock market.
Using The Dow As A Measurement
They wanted things spelled out with specific numbers for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. While I don’t necessarily agree that it’s the best market measurement to use, I went along with the plan.
Here’s what I told Timer Digest:
The General Trend Forecast
We’re anticipating a bullish year in 2017.
We expect to see congested trading from the first of the year through mid-February, followed by an aggressive rally into mid-May.
A well-defined trading range should dominate the summer months, with repeated tests of a stubborn resistance zone.
By late August a fairly sharp sell-off should come into play, lasting until late October.
We anticipate steady bullishness at the end of the year to set new record highs by the close of 2017.
Specific Targets In The Dow
We have a DJIA target of 20605 at the end of the first quarter, 2017.
By mid-year we expect to see the DJIA trading at 22788.
Our target closing price for the DJIA at the end of 2017 is 23823.
A Shameless Plug For Financial Astrology
We base our 2017 forecast on cycles studies and our assessment of the planetary dynamics throughout the year, especially the lunar nodal cycle and the solar eclipses in February and August.
We expect the August solar eclipse to have a particularly strong impact on raw materials and infrastructure concerns, creating short-term market disruption followed by fresh opportunities.
Right now, as we look ahead to the actual trading results we’ll be getting in 2017, I’m wondering if perhaps I didn’t stick my neck out a little too far with this forecast.
After all, those Dow numbers do seem pretty incredible.
Even so, I’m sticking by my forecast. If the cycle work I’ve done is even close to being correct, an insanely bullish trend is well within the realm of possibility, especially during the first half of the year.
We’ll just have to see what happens.