Sunspot Activity & The Economy

Link Between Economic Activity and Sunspots Confirmed

sunspot activity

A gigantic sunspot – almost 80,000 miles across –can be seen on the lower center of the sun in this image from NASA’s Solar Dynamic Observatory captured on Oct. 23, 2014. This article by Bill Meridian reviews the connections between sunspot activity and the economy.
Image Credit: NASA/SDO

 

“Solar activity as measured by the number of sunspots also adds to the explanation of the probability of a recession.”

A Guest Post by Bill Meridian

Cycles Research

Once again, scholastic research has confirmed the link between planetary activity and the economy here on earth.

In the Global Conference on Business and Finance Proceedings, Volume 7, Number 2, from 2012, there is an article linking changes in the economy to sunspots. Cees J. Prins wrote ‘Solar Activity and Economic Recessions: The Case Of The US.’

Direct and Indirect Influences on the Economy

The author concluded, “The probability of a recession taking place depends on many variables. When the interest rate spread between 10 years government bonds and 3 months Treasury Bills is negative a recession is imminent. Also stock prices can give valuable information with predicting power. Solar activity as measured by the number of sunspots also adds to the explanation of the probability of a recession. In the 3 models that are estimated for 6 time periods the number of sunspots is always very significant. The sun has direct and indirect influences on the economy. To the first category belong damages to electronic networks. The indirect effects are the influences on human emotions and in the end also to the economy.”

One of the most dramatic events associated with sunspot activity is a solar flare, which can create electromagnetic phenomena that disrupt communications on Earth.

One of the most dramatic events associated with sunspot activity is a solar flare, which can create electromagnetic phenomena that disrupt communications on Earth.

Forecasting Recessions with Sunspot Activity

In his work, Prins took several variables and determined their value in forecasting recessions. He began with the inverted yield curve (short-term rates higher than long-term rates) because it is well known that this situation has led to a recession each time it has occurred.

He added variables such as stock prices, the leading indicators of the OECD and The Conference Board, the gold price, the oil price, new building permits, new job creation, corporate rate spreads, long-term rate spreads, and sunspots.

The inverted yield curve, stock market returns, and sunspots were the consistent variables in economic forecasting.

In his words, “It is clear that the model has one interesting and significant long term variable: the number of sunspots.” And, “The number of sunspots, as an indication of the activity of the sun, appeared to be a highly significant variable in explanation of a recession during all the periods investigated.”

Sunspot Activity Leads The Pack

It is noteworthy that only one traditional variable, inverted rates, consistently exceeded sunspots as a forecasting tool. Sunspots led all of the other traditional tools.

 

About The Author

Our guest post is by Bill MeBill_Meridianridian, a leading financial astrologer who is the editor of Cycles Research newsletter and the author of Planetary Stock Trading (4th edition) and The Predictive Power of Eclipse Paths.

You can learn more about Bill Meridian and his services and publications at http://billmeridian.com/

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